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Global malaria diagnostic and artemisinin treatment commodities demand forecast

The latest demand forecasts for malaria commodities

Artemisinin and ACT demand and supply forecasting banner

Intro

To help the market demand for malaria commodities including antimalarial medicines, malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and the active pharmaceutical ingredient artemisinin, UNITAID finances and helps coordinate quarterly demand forecasts to inform policy makers and market participants. These forecasts are carried out by the Malaria Diagnostic and Artemisinin Treatment Commodities Forecasting Consortium. All studies are overseen by a Steering Committee composed of representatives from organizations such as UNITAID, the President’s Malaria Initiative, the World Health Organization, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Medicines for Malaria Venture. 

Briefs are also prepared to provide policymakers and other stakeholders with a summary of the latest demand forecasts for antimalarial drugs, RDTs and artemisinin and their implications for health and development policy.

History

At its January 2009 ad hoc meeting in Geneva, the UNITAID Board mandated the UNITAID Secretariat to commission such forecasting services. The Secretariat, recognizing the need to include related activities, broadened the service to include artemisinin and ACT supply and demand forecasting at both the global level and for the Affordable Medicines Facility - malaria (AMFm).  

Since the launch of this project, the quarterly demand forecasts have become a valuable tool in supporting a healthy malaria market by providing insights to policy makers and signals to market participants. With the end of Phase 1, ongoing market uncertainties threatening the stability of ACT and artemisinin supply, as well as the unknown market impact of the availability of quality-assured RDTs, UNITAID commenced Phase 2 of this project. In Phase 2, the scope of the forecasting project has been broadened to include malaria RDTs in light of their emerging role in improving case management and in diminishing inappropriate (presumptive) use of ACTs for patients who do not have malaria, and artemisinin monotherapies including injectable artesunate and rectal artesunate for severe malaria. Phase 2 builds on the principles and processes of Phase 1, notably quarterly reporting with regular updating of assumptions based on newly available data; harmonizing multiple approaches and triangulating outputs from different models; and creating demand estimates for different scenarios that reflect a range of possible future situations.

Through this continued investment, UNITAID is committed to maintaining a global forecasting service to ensure reliable and timely information is collected and communicated to all actors in the supply chain.  


Phase 2: Malaria Commodities Forecasting Reports

Global Malaria Diagnostic and Artemisinin Treatment Commodities Demand Forecast: 2015 – 2018. UNITAID. April 2016.

Global Malaria Diagnostic and Artemisinin Treatment Commodities Demand Forecast: Policy Brief. UNITAID. April 2016.

Global Malaria Diagnostic and Artemisinin Treatment Commodities Demand Forecast: Forecasting Methodology. UNITAID. April 2016.

Phase 1: ACT Forecasting Reports

Demand Forecast for ACTs in 2013-2014

Q4 2013

Demand Forecast for ACTs in 2012-2013

Q3 2012  

Q2 2012  

Q1 2012